Inflation has fallen again on all measures, according to the latest figures from the Office for National Statistics.
We publish the results of our pay planning survey – which looks at employers’ reward intentions for 2019 – at a time when the economy and the labour market present a series of apparent paradoxes. On the one hand, economic growth is weak in comparison with previous periods, with the manufacturing sector virtually in recession and job losses in parts of retail. Productivity growth has faltered since the crash of 2009, and business investment remains low in historic terms.
On the other hand, the labour market seems to be robust, at least in terms of falling unemployment (down to 4%, a figure it last reached in the mid-1970s) and still growing employment. But there is a debate about the extent to which the labour market may have a soft underbelly. This is mostly framed in terms of how ‘underemployment’ – the extent to which employees would like to work more hours, while falling, is still some way above pre-recession levels, indicating that there are still areas of weakness in the labour market. Our survey results tend to support the view that the labour market is tighter, or at least tightening. Over three-fifths of respondents said that pay pressures are increasing, with recruitment and retention issues the main factor behind this. It could be that we have reached the point where it is no longer possible to reduce unemployment and raise employment without increasing wages further. The changing make-up of the labour market in the run-up to and in the aftermath of Brexit could also be a factor here. In addition, while inflation is not as high as it has been in previous periods, it remains at moderate levels and is expected to remain so over the next period, with the possibility that Brexit could see it rise further (see forecasts on page 5). It is not surprising, therefore, that the cost of living has become more important for employers when it comes to determining the level of pay rises. These pressures could produce higher pay rises in 2019 than in 2018. We asked respondents how they thought their 2019 pay awards would compare to inflation. Similar proportions – just below a third – thought they would be equal to the RPI and CPI/CPIH in each case, while just above a quarter thought that pay rises would be in-between the CPI/CPIH and RPI percentage rates. If economists’ predictions are correct and the RPI is around 3% in the first quarter of 2019, then we could see a third of awards at this level (with a further small proportion, 6%, above the RPI). A further third could be worth around 2.2%, while just above a quarter could be set at intermediate levels, eg around 2.6%. Overall this points to between three-fifths and two-thirds of pay awards in 2019 coming in at 2.6% or higher, with many of these at 3% or above. Meanwhile the NLW will also continue to present an upward pressure at the lower end of the earnings distribution.
Other issues for HR/reward professionals in the year ahead include the burgeoning agenda around the reporting of various pay statistics. Employers had to publish their gender pay gaps for the first time this year. The new rules made for an enhanced focus on equal pay issues, even if figures for gaps by job or grade were not required, and this is unlikely to diminish. In fact, the prospect of extra data requirements figured in the Conservatives’ 2016 manifesto and is therefore possible even if the current administration survives. Indeed, the Commons committee on the lessons learnt from the introduction of gender pay gap reporting makes a number of recommendations that point in this direction, including gaps at deciles rather than quartiles and measures to improve data accuracy.
Added to this (in 2020) will be the obligation to report the ratios between the salaries of chief executives’ and those for each firm’s ‘average’ worker. All of this means that properly communicating reward practices to employees will gain in importance over the coming period. Another emerging theme is the possibility that more employers could consider linking pay to productivity improvements. This can be done crudely in those instances where output can be easily measured, but in most cases the emphasis is likely to be on connections between salaries and some indicator of capability, competency or skills. These sorts of relationships could help improve the economy’s poor performance in respect of productivity.
It has to be said, though, that widespread developments in this area are unlikely without a rise in business investment. This tends to be positively related to wage growth. Indeed, the fact that business investment has faltered in the wake of the recession and in the advent of Britain’s departure from the EU is a key explanation for the relatively weak real-terms wage growth witnessed since the crash. For the economy to resume growth, investment will have to begin again, whatever the UK’s relationship with its nearest trading partners. If and when it does, wage growth is likely to be stronger.
Our panel of City economists considers that while inflation is unlikely to rise in the short term, it is likely to remain at or above 3% over the coming 18 months. The prospects for inflation are probably best summarised in the Bank of England’s recent Inflation Report, released on 10 May. It said: ‘Conditional on market interest rates, domestic inflationary pressures are projected to build over the forecast period while the contribution from energy and import prices dissipates.’
Inflation is likely to only slowly abate over the coming year, according to the latest predictions from City economists. One of our panel of economic forecasters sees RPI inflation remaining at similar levels for most of the coming year, and another thinks it will rise a little before coming down later in 2018. Continue reading Forecasts indicate gradual drop in inflation levels
The latest instalment in the debate over which inflation indicator is the most appropriate for uprating benefits such as pensions took place in the High Court in January. The case, brought by telecoms firm BT, was that the company should be allowed to change provisions for uprating pension payments from the Retail Prices Index (RPI) to the Consumer Prices Index (CPI), on the basis that the former had ‘become inappropriate’, according to the rules of the scheme. The case has implications for setting pay as well as pensions.
All of our panel of City economists see RPI inflation peaking in the next month or two and thereafter coming slowly down. Our rounded average of the predictions from seven City forecasting bodies shows the RPI, which is currently at 4% for the year to October, falling to 3.6% in the year to February. The February figure will be released in mid-March and as such will be the extant measure when many companies’ April 2018 pay reviews take place.
Inflation could rise to just below 4% on the all-items RPI measure by the autumn, according to our panel of City economists. Thereafter it could fall, but slowly. This assessment is based on our rounded average of the predictions from eight forecasters. The panel divides evenly between those who see RPI reaching 4% and those who think it is unlikely to rise this far. The main point of difference is based on whether the upward pressure on import prices from sterling’s previous depreciation, following the vote to leave the EU, have mainly worked through, or whether most of these effects remain to be felt. Continue reading Forecasters think inflation could rise to just below 4% by autumn
Our latest analysis of trends in pay awards shows that private sector settlements have risen from 2% to 2.4% at the median, mainly as a result of companies acting to raise rates at the lower end of their pay structures to bring them into line with the new statutory minimum rates. Continue reading Viewpoint: Pay squeeze in sharper focus than before
The latest inflation figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) show that the all-items RPI inflation figure stood at 3.1% in the year to March, having risen sharply from 2.6% to 3.2% in the year to February. Continue reading RPI inflation dips to 3.1% in March
Inflation forecast to rise to 4% by late summer
After the sharp rise in RPI inflation in the year to February, economic forecasters have had to revise their assumptions about the likely path of inflation. Inflation rose to 3.2% in the year to February, up from 2.6% in the year to January. The increases were higher than predicted, and were due to increases in prices for oil and petrol on the one hand, and food on the other. In the case of food prices, increases are mainly caused by the impact of sterling’s depreciation.