Steady outlook for pay in 2026

Over two-fifths (44%) of organisations expect to award a similar level of pay rise this year compared with 2025, according to our latest poll of employers’ pay intentions. Meanwhile, 28% anticipate awarding lower increases to staff in 2026 than they did in 2025. A further 28% of employers in the sample expect that their pay award in 2026 will be higher when compared to last year’s outcomes. These findings come from responses given by HR professionals from 89 employers yet to finally decide their 2026 pay award. 

How much could pay increases be worth in 2026?

Nearly two-fifths (39%) of these organisations anticipate awarding a pay rise to their main staff group worth between 3% and 3.49% in 2026. Around a fifth (22%) said that the main pay rise is likely to be worth between 3.5% and 3.99%, while just 11% of the sample feel that their pay award will be worth 4% or more this year.  

About the research

The poll was conducted in November and December 2025 and gained 121 responses from mostly large and medium-sized private sector firms employing over 2.8 million workers in total. The median workforce size was 2,400. Nearly four-fifths (79%) of respondents operate in the private sector (49% in private services and 30% in the manufacturing and primary area). Some 16% are in the not-for-profit area and public sector employers constitute 5% of the sample. Around three-quarters (89) of respondents were yet to decide their precise pay award at the time of the poll.

Pay trends in 2026

Separate analysis shows that currently, the median pay award for 2026, across all sectors, is 3.4%, based on a sample of 75 outcomes monitored by IDR so far this year. Our regular monitoring of pay deals provides up-to-date analysis of the latest economy-wide trends in pay. Our research is based on already-agreed outcomes and it therefore provides a valuable resource to HR professionals who are seeking guidance on what their organisation’s pay award should be.

Take part in our research to receive a free copy of IDR’s next analysis article on pay trends to keep up-to-date with further findings. Click below to access the survey: