There was a slight dip in average weekly earnings on both measures in the three months to May 2024, while real-terms growth held steady. Annual growth in average regular earnings (ie not including bonuses) was 5.7% for the whole economy, down from 6.0% in the previous three-month period. Growth was last lower than this in the three months to August 2022, when it showed at 5.4%. Average total earnings growth (ie including bonuses) was likewise 5.7% (down from 5.9% in the previous three-month period); it was last lower than this – at 5.6% – in the three months to January 2024.

While average earnings growth has dipped slightly on both measures, the ONS nonetheless still considers the current rates of growth to be ‘relatively strong’, which they are in recent historical terms. Meanwhile in real terms, annual growth (adjusted for CPIH inflation) in total pay held steady at 2.2%, and was up slightly, from 2.4% to 2.5%, for regular pay. It was last higher in the summer of 2021, just as inflation was starting to rise. 

Annual average regular earnings growth for the private sector was 5.6% – this is down from 5.9% in the previous period and was last lower than this (at 5.4%) in the three months from April to June 2022. Total earnings growth in the private sector was at a similar level of 5.5% (likewise down from 5.9% in the three months to April).

Earnings growth was stronger in the public sector than in the private sector in the latest period. Annual average regular earnings growth for the public sector (excluding financial services) remains strong, showing at 6.4%, up from 6.3% in the two previous months. Total earnings growth in the public sector was at a similar level (6.3%). This pattern is in keeping with a cycle frequently observed in earnings comparisons between the two sectors, whereby pay in the private sector moves ahead and the public sector eventually catches up, and then stays ahead for a time while private sector growth weakens.

The largest annual growth rate in regular pay was in finance and business services, at 6.7% – although this is down on the previous period’s figure of 6.9%. Manufacturing saw a fall from 6.6% to 6.2% and in wholesaling, retailing, hotels and restaurants annual growth in regular earnings was 5.5%, compared with 5.8% in the three months to April. Once again, the construction sector saw the lowest rate of annual growth in average regular earnings – 3.0%, the same as the previous three-month period. 

A similar sectoral picture is observed for annual total pay growth: this held steady at 7.0% in finance and business services and was down to 1.7% (from 2.2% in the three months to April) in construction.

Figures correct at time of writing. The ONS sometimes publishes revisions to its Average Weekly Earnings data series; for the most up-to-date figures see its latest and previous releases on the ONS website.

Annual growth in both regular and total weekly earnings has remained steady for the three months to April. Across the whole economy, annual growth in regular earnings, which excludes bonuses, is still showing at 6.0% while total earnings growth was 5.9%. However, with successive falls in inflation, real-terms earnings growth (where figures are adjusted for inflation, based on the CPIH measure) has risen once again, with regular pay growth increasing by 2.3% and total pay by 1.7%.

Regular pay growth in the private sector has fallen very slightly again this month, from 5.9% to 5.8%, and remains at 6.3% in the public sector (excluding financial services). The finance and business services sector has seen the strongest regular pay growth, at 6.9%, up slightly from 6.8% last month, while regular pay growth in manufacturing is also high, at 6.5%. The lowest growth rate is in construction, at 2.9%, but this is up on the previous month’s rate. 

The strongest growth in total pay, which includes bonus payments, can again be seen in the finance and business services sector, where it is likewise showing at 6.9%; this is partly attributable to the fact that March tends to be the peak bonus month for the sector. Average weekly bonus payments in finance and business services were worth £109 in the three months to April. Meanwhile total pay growth in the construction sector has seen a further decline, to 2.1%, down from 2.3% last month. Meanwhile in manufacturing, total pay growth is showing at 6.5%, the same as for regular pay, and this is up from 6.2% last month. 

Figures correct at time of writing. The ONS sometimes publishes revisions to its Average Weekly Earnings data series; for the most up-to-date figures see its latest and previous releases on the ONS website.

Following a period in which earnings growth had been trending downwards, there has been no change to overall average weekly earnings growth for the three months to March. Across the whole economy, annual growth in regular earnings remains at 6.0% while total earnings growth (the measure that includes variable elements such as bonuses – for which March is a peak month) is still at 5.7%. However, adjusting for inflation (using CPIH) shows an increase in real terms pay growth, with regular pay increasing by 2.0% and total pay by 1.7% – up from 1.9% and 1.6% respectively the previous month. 

Regular pay growth in the private sector is slightly down, from 6.0% to 5.9%, while growth in the public sector has risen from 6.1% to 6.3%. This rate was last lower in the three months to June 2022, when it showed at 5.4%. The largest annual regular growth rates, both 6.8%, were in the manufacturing and financial and business services sectors – this represents no change in the rate in the former sector and a small increase of 0.1 percentage point in the latter. Meanwhile growth is showing at just 2.6% in construction, down from 3.1% the previous month.

March is typically the peak month for bonuses and average growth in total pay, which includes such elements, remains steady at 5.7% despite record total average bonus payouts in March 2024 (up marginally on the values for the previous March). The highest average bonus payments were in the financial and business services sector, while bonuses in both construction and wholesaling, retailing, hotels and restaurants were lower than in March 2023. The highest growth in average total earnings was likewise found in the financial and business services sector, at 6.3% compared with 5.8% last month. Total earnings growth also rose in the public sector (6.2%) and manufacturing (6.0%). By contrast, the construction sector saw a fall from 4.3% for the three months to February to just 2.1% in the latest figures. 

Figures correct at time of writing. The ONS sometimes publishes revisions to its Average Weekly Earnings data series; for the most up-to-date figures see its latest and previous releases on the ONS website.

Earnings growth is trending downwards slowly, according to the latest figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS). Nonetheless, it remains positive in real terms: against the ONS’ preferred inflation measure of CPIH, total pay rose by 1.6% for the quarter from December 2023 to February 2024 while regular pay rose by 1.9%. In both cases, these figures were last above this level in the quarter from July to September 2021 (when they rose by 3.1% and 2.2% respectively). And earnings growth remains relatively strong in key sectors such as manufacturing and finance and business services. 

Looking at regular pay, which excludes bonuses, annual growth was 6.0% across the whole economy for the period from December 2023 to February 2024, down slightly from 6.1% in the previous three-month period. Regular pay growth in the private sector was at the same level of 6.0%, likewise down from 6.1% the month before. There is some variation in the picture by sector however: growth rates in the public sector (excluding financial services) and manufacturing remain unchanged on the previous three-month period, at 6.0% and 6.9% respectively, although this latter figure indicates comparatively strong growth in the manufacturing sector. Meanwhile regular pay growth in the finance and business services sector is not far behind at 6.8%, up from 6.7% the previous month. In percentage-point terms, the wholesaling, retailing, hotels and restaurants sector has seen the greatest change in annual growth rates (a fall from 7.1% last month to 6.4% for the current three-month period) compared with relatively muted changes in all other subsectors.

The figures for total pay present a similar picture of no or little change in most sectors. Across the whole economy, annual growth in average weekly earnings on the total pay measure remains at 5.6%. The figure for the private sector is likewise 5.6%, down from 5.7% for the previous three-month period. Once again, the wholesaling, retailing, hotels and restaurants sector has seen the greatest change in percentage-point terms with the latest rate showing at 5.2% compared with 5.8% for the period from November 2023 to January 2024. And as with regular pay, changes in all other sectors have been relatively muted, with finance and business services, the public sector (excluding financial services) and manufacturing all showing small increases (of 0.1 or 0.2 percentage points) on the previous month, with small falls in the other sectors.

Figures correct at time of writing. The ONS sometimes publishes revisions to its Average Weekly Earnings data series; for the most up-to-date figures see its latest and previous releases on the ONS website.

Average weekly earnings across the whole of the economy rose by 6.1% on the regular pay measure in the year to January 2024. This was down marginally from the rate of 6.2% in the year to December 2023. Total pay, which includes bonuses, rose by 5.6% in the year to January, down from 5.8% in the year to December. The growth rate in average earnings is down from the higher levels seen last year, mainly in response to the lower rate of inflation, but remains relatively strong.

The recent easing in inflation means that earnings are growing once again in real terms. In this month’s release the ONS says that in real terms (adjusted for CPIH inflation), total pay rose by 1.4% and regular pay rose by 1.8% in the year to January 2024. These numbers are the same as those for December 2023. CPIH inflation averaged 4.2% in the year to the three months to January 2024.

Current research by IDR shows that recent pay settlements across the economy have centred on 5%. The difference between this figure and that for average earnings growth – which represents the sum total contribution from basic pay and increases in it, plus bonuses (for total pay), overtime, shift pay and other allowances – is sometimes referred to as ‘earnings drift’. This gap re-emerged after the pandemic following a very lengthy period in which there was little difference between basic pay awards and average earnings growth.

The sector with the highest increase in average weekly earnings was wholesaling, retailing, hotels and restaurants where regular earnings, excluding bonuses, grew by 7.2% in the year to January. This was the same increase as in the year to December. Some pay awards in the retail and hospitality sectors are anticipating the increase in the National Minimum Wage of around 10% from 1 April.

The next highest increase was in manufacturing where average earnings grew by 6.8% in the year to January, followed by finance and business services where the growth rate was 6.6%. The sector with the weakest growth rate in earnings was construction, at just 3.3% in the year to January, down from 3.8% in the year to December. Shorter daylight hours in winter can depress earnings in this sector.

Average earnings growth in the whole of the private sector was 6.1% in the year to January, marginally down on 6.2% in the year to December. In the public sector, the rate of growth was 5.9% in the year to January, the same as the revised figure for the year to December. The ONS said that earnings growth in the public sector was not as high as in recent periods but remains strong.

Figures correct at time of writing. The ONS sometimes publishes revisions to its Average Weekly Earnings data series; for the most up-to-date figures see its latest and previous releases on the ONS website.

Average weekly earnings across the whole of the economy rose by 6.2% on the regular pay measure in the year to December 2023. Total pay, which includes bonuses, rose by 5.8% in the year to December. The rate of growth is easing back in response to the fall in inflation. Earnings growth is down from the high level of around 8% seen in summer 2023, but remains strong in comparison to the pre-pandemic trend.

At its height, the inflation rate ran ahead of growth in average weekly earnings. However, in recent months the rate of growth in average earnings has been ahead of inflation, as the latter has come down. The ONS says that in real terms (adjusted for CPIH inflation) total pay rose by 1.4% and regular pay rose by 1.8% in the year to December.

Average earnings growth in the public sector continues to be lower than that in the private sector. Regular pay in the public sector grew by 5.8% in the year to December while the growth rate in the private sector was 6.2%. The ONS says that public sector pay growth is not as high as in recent periods but remains relatively strong.

In the year to December, the sector with the highest earnings growth was wholesaling, retailing, hotels and restaurants where average earnings grew by 7.2%. The next highest was manufacturing where the rate of growth was 6.9%.

The sector with the highest rate of growth is frequently finance and business services, but in the year to December earnings growth in this highest-paid sector dropped back to 6.7%.

The sector with the weakest growth in average earnings was construction, where the regular pay rate was just 3.8% in the year to December.

Research by IDR show that recent pay settlements across the economy have been around the 5% level, which is consistent with average earnings growth of 6% to 7%. However, average earnings reflect all payments made including bonuses, overtime, shift payments, and location allowances. Most private sector companies have pay review dates in January and April and the level of these awards will give an indication of the level of average earnings growth in future months.

Figures correct at time of writing. The ONS sometimes publishes revisions to its Average Weekly Earnings data series; for the most up-to-date figures see its latest and previous releases on the ONS website.

All other sectors showed a falling off in earnings growth. For example, the regular pay figures for both finance and business services on the one hand, and manufacturing on the other, showed at 7.0% in the year to November, down from 8.2% the previous month in the case of the former and from 7.4% for the latter. The weakest earnings growth was seen in construction, which posted a regular pay figure of just 4.5%, down from 5.2% previously. Earnings drift – or the difference between basic pay increases and growth in average weekly earnings – is weakest here at a time of the year which tends to see less construction activity than during warmer months. In any case, basic pay increases generally only take place once a year, under a number of different collective agreements in the construction sector, so their influence on the average weekly earnings figures is not uniform. 

Figures correct at time of writing. The ONS sometimes publishes revisions to its Average Weekly Earnings data series; for the most up-to-date figures see its latest and previous releases on the ONS website.

Average weekly earnings across the whole of the economy rose by 7.3% on the regular pay measure, in the year to October 2023. This rate of growth was down from 7.8% in the year to September. Total pay, which includes bonuses, rose by 7.2% in the year to October, down from 8.0% in the year to September. The ONS said that ‘growth continues to remain strong but is not as high as in recent periods.’

The rate of growth in average earnings has run ahead of the inflation rate for several months now, as inflation has come down. The ONS says that in real terms (adjusted by CPIH inflation) total pay rose by 1.3% and regular pay rose by 1.4% in the year to October.

Average earnings growth in the private sector continues to run ahead of that in the public sector. Regular pay growth in the private sector rose by 7.3% in the year to October while the growth rate in the public sector was 6.9%. The latest figure for public sector pay growth is among the highest since comparable records began in 2001. Higher pay awards in the public sector this year, compared to previous years, are one of the factors here.

Strong average earnings growth in the private sector continues to be driven by movements in particular sectors such as in finance and business services and in manufacturing. In the year to October, average earnings excluding bonuses rose by 8.3% in finance and business services and by 7.4% in manufacturing, though the trend in both looks to have turned down.

Elsewhere, average earnings rose by 5.2% in the construction sector in October, down from 5.8% in the year to September. Wholesaling, retailing, hotels and restaurants was the only sector in which the rate of growth in earnings was up on the previous month, showing at 7.0% in October, up from 6.6% in the year to September.

An indication of the trend line in earnings growth is provided by the separate ONS/HMRC release based on PAYE data, with real time information. This provides experimental monthly estimates. Early estimates for November 2023 indicate that median monthly pay increased by 5.3% compared with November 2022.

Figures correct at time of writing. The ONS sometimes publishes revisions to its Average Weekly Earnings data series; for the most up-to-date figures see its latest and previous releases on the ONS website.

Average weekly earnings across the whole of the economy rose by 7.7% on the regular pay measure, in the year to September. This was down marginally from a rate of 7.9% in the year to August. Total pay, which includes bonuses, rose by 7.9% in the year to September, down from 8.2% in the year to August. The growth rate in average weekly earnings has been close to 8% for several months now, close to the highest rates on record.

The rate of growth in average earnings has been ahead of the inflation rate for several months now. The ONS says that in real terms (adjusted by CPIH) total pay rose by 1.4% and regular pay rose by 1.3% in the year to September.

Comparing growth in average earnings in the private sector and the public sector, private sector regular pay rose by 7.8% in the year to September compared to 7.3% in the public sector. The public sector rate of growth is the highest rate since comparable records began in 2001.

However, comparison of the total pay figures shows growth of 7.7% in the private sector compared with 8.6% in the public sector, mainly because of the effect of one-off payments of £1,500 in the civil service that accompanied comparatively lower basic pay increases than elsewhere. These payments were aimed at alleviating cost-of-living issues for civil servants, many of whom are low-paid.

Strong average earnings growth in the private sector continues to be driven by pay in the finance and business services sector, where the rate of regular pay growth was 9.4% in the year to September, down slightly from 9.6% in the year to August.

One of the highest rates of growth was in manufacturing, at 7.7% in the year to September, down from 8.0% in the year to August and 8.1% in the year to July. These rates of growth are comparatively high, in historical terms, for the manufacturing sector where, prior to the pandemic, earnings were rising at lower rates. The figure of 8.1% was the highest since records began in 2001. (The next highest rate of growth after finance and business services was actually in ‘services’ which as well as merging finance and business services with the public sector also includes sectors which are otherwise not separately delineated, such as telecoms and transportation. This was showing at 7.9%.)

In construction the rate of growth in average earnings was 5.8% in the year to September, down marginally from 5.7% in the year to August. In wholesaling, retailing, hotels and restaurants the rate of growth was 6.6% in the year to September, unchanged on the figure for August.

In recent months there has been a regular pattern to earnings growth by sector, with rates in the finance sector at close to 9.5% and rates in manufacturing close to 8%. Rates of earnings growth in construction have been lower at close to 5.8% and growth rates in retailing have been close to 6.6%. This might change in the coming months but much depends on what happens to the economy, inflation and labour markets generally.

Figures correct at time of writing. The ONS sometimes publishes revisions to its Average Weekly Earnings data series; for the most up-to-date figures see its latest and previous releases on the ONS website.

Across the whole of the economy, average weekly earnings grew by 7.8% on the regular pay measure, which excludes bonuses and other one-off payments, in the year to August. This is one of the highest rates of growth since comparable records began in 2001. Total pay, which includes bonuses, increased by 8.1% in the year to August. Recent figures have been boosted by one-off payments as part of settlements in the NHS and civil service.

For the three most recent months, growth in average weekly earnings has been positive when adjusted for inflation. In the latest period, for the three months to August 2023, compared to the three months to August 2022, total pay rose by 1.3% and regular pay grew by 1.1%, when adjusted by the CPIH which increased by 6.7% in the period.

Average weekly earnings in the private sector rose by 8.0% in the year to August, down marginally from 8.1% in the year to July. In the public sector, average weekly earnings grew by 6.8% in the year to August, up from 6.6% in the year to July. This rate of growth in regular pay in the public sector is the highest since comparable records began in 2001.

The highest level of growth in regular pay continues to be in finance and business services. Here the rate of growth in the year to August was 9.6%, up marginally from 9.5% in the year to July.

Strong growth in earnings continues in manufacturing, where the rate of growth was 8.0% in the year to August, one of the highest rates of growth for this sector since comparable records began in 2001.

In the construction sector, average weekly earnings grew by 5.7% in the year to August, up from 5.6% in the year to July.

In the largest industrial sector, and the lowest-paying for the bulk of employees, that of wholesaling, retailing, hotels and restaurants, average weekly earnings rose by 6.6% in the year to August, up marginally from 6.5% in the year to July.

An indication of the trend line in earnings growth is provided by the separate ONS/HMRC release based on PAYE data, with real time information. Early estimates for September 2023 indicate that median monthly pay rose by 5.7% compared with September 2023. However in the release last month, the ONS/HMRC estimate for the year to August was 6.7% compared to the AWE outturn of 7.8%. While the 5.7% estimate for September may be an under-estimate it could also be an indication that earnings growth is slowing, with IDR’s data on pay settlements also showing that the median has begun to trend down.

Figures correct at time of writing. The ONS sometimes publishes revisions to its Average Weekly Earnings data series; for the most up-to-date figures see its latest and previous releases on the ONS website.

Across the whole of the economy, average weekly earnings rose by 7.8% on the regular pay measure (excluding bonuses) in the year to July. This level was reached in the year to June and is the highest rate of growth since comparable records began in 2001. Total pay, which includes bonuses, rose by 8.5% in the year to July, up from 8.4% in the year to June. The July figure was boosted by one-off payments in the NHS and to civil servants.

Growth in average earnings is now positive when adjusted for inflation. In the three months from May to July, total pay grew by +1.2% and regular pay grew by +0.6%, when adjusted by the CPIH measure of inflation.

Comparing growth in average earnings in the private sector and the public sector, we see that private sector regular pay growth was 8.1% in the year to July compared with 6.6% in the public sector. This figure for the public sector is the highest since comparable records began in 2001.

However, comparison of the total pay figures show growth of 7.6% in the private sector and 12.2% in the public sector. This much higher figure is because of the effects of one-off bonuses in the NHS and civil service.

The high level of average earnings growth in the private sector continues to be driven by pay in the finance and business services sector, where the rate of regular pay growth was 9.5%, up from 9.4%. In the year to June.

The next highest rate of growth was in manufacturing at 8.1% in the year to July. The ONS says that this rate is one of the highest in this sector since records began in 2001.

Meanwhile, average weekly earnings in construction grew by 5.4% in the year to July, down from 5.8% in the year to June.

In the largest industrial sector and the lowest-paid, that of wholesaling, retailing, hotels and restaurants, average weekly earnings rose by 6.5% in the year to July, up from 6.3% in the year to June.

An indication of the trend line in earnings growth is provided by the separate ONS/HMRC release based on PAYE data, with real time information. Early estimates for August 2023 indicate that median monthly pay increased by 6.7% compared with August 2022. This suggests the potential for a slight dip in average weekly earnings growth when the year to August figures are released in mid-October.

Figures correct at time of writing. The ONS sometimes publishes revisions to its Average Weekly Earnings data series; for the most up-to-date figures see its latest and previous releases on the ONS website.

Average weekly earnings across the whole of the economy grew by 7.8% on the regular pay measure in the year to June 2023. This is the highest rate of growth since comparable records began in 2001. Total pay, which includes bonuses, rose by 8.2%, boosted by one-off payments paid in the NHS.

According to calculations by the ONS, annual growth adjusted by the CPIH inflation rate indicates real terms growth of 0.5% in total pay and 0.1% in regular pay.

Comparing average earnings growth in the private sector with the public sector (excluding financial services), we see that in the private sector regular pay growth was 8.2% in the year to June compared with 6.2% in the public sector. However, with one-off bonuses paid as part of the settlements in the NHS, total pay rose by 7.9% in the private sector and by 9.7% in the public sector.

Looking at the large industrial sectors that make up the private sector, the highest rate of growth in regular pay was once again in the finance and business services sector at 9.4%. The next highest rate of growth in the year to June 2023 was in manufacturing, a remarkably high 8.2%, which is the highest rate of growth since comparable records began in 2001.

Average earnings growth in construction was 5.8% in the year to June. In the largest industrial sector and the lowest paid, that of wholesaling, retailing, hotels and restaurants, average earnings rose by 6.3% in the year to June.

Earnings growth remains strong in the private sector, especially in finance and business services, and more recently in manufacturing. Recent pay increases in the public sector have boosted overall earnings for the whole economy. What is the likely trend as we enter the second half of the year? An indication of the trend line in earnings growth is provided by the separate experimental ONS/HMRC release based on PAYE data, with real time information. Early estimates for July 2023 indicate that median monthly pay increased by 7.8% compared with July 2022, suggesting the rate of earnings growth remains strong.

Figures correct at time of writing. The ONS sometimes publishes revisions to its Average Weekly Earnings data series; for the most up-to-date figures see its latest and previous releases on the ONS website.