The number of payrolled employees recorded by HMRC has continued to fall in the quarter from February to April, this time by 78,000, suggesting a continuing softening of the labour market. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) has been presenting this figure as an alternative, more accurate measure for consideration alongside Labour Force Survey (LFS) employment data while it works to resolve sampling issues with the latter. For reference however, the LFS indicates by contrast that employment among workers aged 16 to 64 rose slightly over the same period, by 88,000, producing a 0.1 percentage point increase in the employment rate. Early estimates of May’s payrolled employee levels from HMRC suggest a further fall can be expected next month, although the ONS urges caution here given the comparatively early timing of the data extract and the expectation that these provisional figures will be subject to significant revision as HMRC receives more returns.
