In the immediate post-Budget short term, inflation should stay at or around current levels, but by January 2026, it could drop to around 4% on the RPI, 3.5% on the CPIH and 3.2% on the CPI measure, according to our panel of City economists. After remaining steady for a couple of months, it might fall again in April, this time to around 3.4% on the RPI, 2.8% on the CPIH and 2.6% on the CPI; but thereafter it could remain more or less steady (and stay above the Government’s macroeconomic target for the CPI of 2%). The theme, therefore, remains one of slow disinflation, with food and services prices among the factors continuing to buoy up inflation, relatively.
